Future collisional evolution of Earth-orbiting debris

Earth-orbiting objects can undergo high-velocity mutual collisions which affect their size distribution by generating swarms of fragments, playing the role of potential new projectiles. We are developing a model which simulates this collisional evolution process by integrating a set of 150 coupled, nonlinear, first-order differential equations which include various source and sink terms. Some preliminary results are illustrated, showing that on the long term the impact process can cause a catastrophic decrease of the spacecraft population, in particular in the shell between 700 and 1000 km altitudes.