The short-term impact of the Cosmos 1408 fragmentation on neighboring space regions: from inhabited space stations to large satellite constellations

In terms of cataloged debris produced, the anti-satellite test carried out by Russia, in November 2021, at an altitude of about 480 km, leading to the destruction of the old satellite Cosmos 1408, was the second worst to date and represented the third worse fragmentation in orbit. It generated more than 1/4 of the cataloged debris produced over 55 years by all such tests and almost twice as many as were produced by all previous Soviet tests. After placing this event in its historical context, this paper analyzes in detail how the evolution of the Cosmos 1408 debris cloud impacted the environment below 600 km in the first seven months, focusing on the two operational space stations and the Starlink mega-constellation of satellites. For the International Space Station, the Cosmos 1408 cloud of fragments increased the flux of cataloged objects, on average, by nearly 80%, while for the Tiangong Space Station the increase was almost 65%. Immediately after the test, the Starlink mega-constellation saw as well an increase in the flux of cataloged objects, of the order of 20% on average. Some orbital planes, the "counter-rotating" ones with respect to the Cosmos 1408 debris cloud, were more affected than others, and the affected planes gradually changed over time, due to the differential precession of cloud and constellation nodes. However, being the Starlink constellation 70 km higher up, the flux of Cosmos 1408 cataloged debris steadily decreased over the period analyzed, due to the cloud orbital decay, more than halving after seven months.