A data-driven causality analysis for the attribution of recent global warming

Even if the application of dynamical models obviously represents the main road for investigating cause-effect relationships in the climate system, also other analyses can shed light to the problem of attributing recent global warming. In this paper, the concept of Granger causality (well known in econometric studies) is applied to this topic. By considering the direct role of anthropogenic and natural forcings, and the influence of patterns of natural variability, our results confirm the major role of greenhouse-gases radiative forcing in driving temperature and show a clear evidence of a recent causal decoupling between solar irradiance and temperature itself.