Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon at Field Scale by Regression Kriging and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Using Geophysical Covariates

Abstract: Knowledge of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) is of crucial importance for improving crop productivity and assessing the effect of agronomic management strategies on crop response and soil quality. Incorporating secondary variables correlated to SOC allows using information often available at finer spatial resolution, such as proximal and remote sensing data, and improving prediction accuracy. In this study, two nonstationary interpolation methods were used to predict SOC, namely, regression kriging (RK) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), using as secondary variables electromagnetic induction (EMI) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. Two GPR covariates, representing two soil layers at different depths, and X geographical coordinates were selected by both methods with similar variable importance. Unlike the linear model of RK, the MARS model also selected one EMI covariate. This result can be attributed to the intrinsic capability of MARS to intercept the interactions among variables and highlight nonlinear features underlying the data. The results indicated a larger contribution of GPR than of EMI data due to the different resolution of EMI from that of GPR. Thus, MARS coupled with geophysical data is recommended for prediction of SOC, pointing out the need to improve soil management to guarantee agricultural land sustainability.