A Multi-Variate framework to assess reliability and discrimination power of Bayesian estimation of Intravoxel Incoherent Motion parameters

Purpose: To propose a multivariate multi-step framework for a systematic assessment of the estimation reliability and discriminability of Intravoxel Incoherent Motion (IVIM) model parameters. Methods: Monte-Carlo simulations were generated on a range of SNRs and in different IVIM combinations considering: i) a dense discretization with 24 b-values; ii) a discretization with 9 b-values. A state-of-the-art Bayesian fitting method was adopted. The framework assessed: i) the best model between mono- and bi-exponential, through the BIC index; ii) the fitting accuracy; iii) the power in discriminating two different IVIM parameters distributions of estimated coefficients, using a multivariate test. Exemplificative oncologic cases were also presented. Results: The bi-exponential fitting was reliable for perfusion fraction higher than 5%, with high accuracy in D estimation, acceptable error for f, but high uncertainty in D*. The discrimination of two distributions is generally feasible if differences in D values (at least 0.3 x10^(-3) mm^2 /s) are present; in the case of similar D values, a minimal difference of 5% in f can be discriminated just in case of balanced sample size and dense b-values discretization, whereas the impact of D* is quite negligible. These results were also supported by clinical examples. Conclusions: IVIM model is generally accurate in estimating diffusion, but uncertainties related to perfusion estimation are not negligible and compromise the discrimination power when different populations should be differentiated. The proposed framework should be adopted as interpretative guidelines to better understand when IVIM model applied on real data can provide reliable findings.