ADAPTATION OF IRRIGATED AND RAIN-FED ITALIAN CROP SYSTEMS TO FUTURE CLIMATE: ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL OF INTRA-SPECIFIC BIODIVERSITY

The study illustrates and applies a framework to evaluate options for adaptation in relevant Italian crop systems. Adaptation assessment relies on the identification of cultivars optimally adapted to expected climatic conditions, building on existing crop intra-specific biodiversity. The approach uses a process-based simulation model of water flow in the soil-plantatmosphere system to calculate expected hydrological indicators. Empirical functions of cultivars yield responses to water availability are used to determine cultivar-specific hydrological requirements. In a future climate (2021-2050) case studies are analyzed on rain-fed crops (olive, wine grapes, durum wheat) in a hilly area of southern Italy and on irrigated field and horticultural crops (maize and tomato) in a plain of southern Italy. We have identified cultivars adapted to the future climate; for irrigated crops options for adaptations have been identified as a combination of cultivars and irrigation schedules