Food security in a context of climate change and natural resources scarcity

The SEMCs are the most food import-dependent countries in the world and net food imports are projected to rise even further in the future. The high reliance on imported food can be attributed to rising population and changing consumption patterns in a context of limited natural resources such as land and water. The food price spikes of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 have been a stark reminder of the potential fragility of the food security situation in the SEMCs. This study examines the water and food security nexus and its geopolitical implications in SEMCs, highlighting how food policies have fostered specialization in the cultivation of highly water-intensive crops giving rise to unsustainable agricultural production models. The chapter analyses the impact of climate change on water and food security emphasizing how water consumption in SEMCs is strictly linked to the production, consumption and trading system of agro-food products. In addition to the geopolitical dimension of food security, the chapter investigates the hydropolitics in the MENA region describing alternative competition scenarios involving both large international river basins and fossil aquifers shared by various countries. It concludes by identifying in a new "green revolution" the only possible option to develop a sustainable model of agriculture in the long term.