Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for induced seismicity

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis is currently the most common approach to seismic hazard analysis. For application to induced seismicity, a major challenge is the fact that the hazard is inherently nonstationary. In this paper we describe the theoretical extension of PSHA to a non-stationary context. We identify three major challenges of non-stationary PSHA: (1) the determination of the seismicity rate as a function of time, (2) the definition of the earthquake probability density functions for space and magnitude, and (3) the construction or selection of an appropriate ground motion prediction equation. We show some examples from our work in progress at the Groningen field.