Economic evaluation of genetic improvement in local breeds: the case of the Verzaschese goat

The paper analyses expected costs and benefits of closed nucleus selection in 1100 females of local goat breed Verzaschese. Returns are based on income from the sale of milk per unit of genetic gain. Costs include milk and pedigree recording, housing and maintenance of males and their transport from nucleus to commercial herds, semen production and artificial insemination in the nucleus. Discounted profits, under eight economic scenarios, over investment periods of 10, 15 and 20 years are analysed. Discounted profit for the 14 breeding schemes under the 'best conditions' economic scenario, taking into account returns from increased milk production in both nucleus and commercial population, ranges from 2517-226,434 Euros (10 years period), from 46,387-564,753 Euros (15 years period), and from 106,73-986,676 Euros (20 years period). When we consider genetic gain returns only from the nucleus, over a period of 10 years no breeding schemes show positive discounted profit. In the 15 years period, three schemes show positive discounted profit and two negative discounted profits but above 10,000 Euros; five schemes have positive discounted profit and two schemes above 10,000 in the 20 years horizon. Sensitivity analysis on profit per year shows the variable cost for recording ranking first, followed by return from milk, and by percentage of pregnancy failure.