Assessment of an ocean variability in the Sicily Channel from a numerical threedimensional model using EOF decomposition

The circulation in the Sicily Channel and the surrounding areas has been simulated from January 2001 to December 2004 using a numerical three-dimensional, free surface, nested limited area ocean model. Basic monthly-based statistics, as well as Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis, have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the circulation and hydrology of the Sicily Channel. Significant interannual variability of the surface properties, superimposed over an underlying and stronger seasonal cycle, has been identified in the space-time domain through the EOFs and has been correlated with the changes in the simulated circulation and hydrology. The main interannual event is related to changes in the surface circulation that occurred during summer 2003. The skill of the numerical model is assessed to measure its ability in reproducing the dynamical characteristics of this part of the Mediterranean, taking into account the general lack of data, especially in the southern part of the domain. The model performances also suggest directions for further research efforts and for model improvements, such as an improved reproduction of the mixed layer.