Climate Change and Environmentally Induced Migration

In the last decade, the economic and social precariousness of the European countries has been exacerbated by increased migration flows coming from the MENA area. These new migratory flows are encouraged not only by traditional push factors aimed at improving migrants' economic conditions, but also by political reasons and by factors associated to the effects of climate and environmental changes, contributing to increase the incidence of environmental migrants. In the South-Eastern shore of the Mediterranean, affected by the lack of two key resources for human development, namely water and arable land, and by a strong anthropogenic pressure on natural systems, climate change assumes the role of explanatory variable in increasing social discontent, internal instability, and migratory flows, all factors that are likely to have an impact on the whole Euro-Mediterranean area. This study aims to shed light on the complex relationships between climate change, environmental degradation and migration flows in the Mediterranean countries, and to provide insight into current research as well as political initiatives. It also intends to counter some widespread misperceptions. In particular, the chapter explores possible futures of Mediterranean migration in the coming decades, especially in respect of environmental factors. Based on an evaluation of past and current drivers of migration in the region, it will provide an assessment of how changes in drivers and their interaction may lead to different migration outcomes.