De l'observatoire démographique aux prévisions: le cas de la ville de Gênes.

The aim of the research presented is to compile and analyse demographic information relevant to the city administration of Genoa regarding the recent past and the future. Genoa, a city with 640 000 inhabitants, is characterized by population aging with an extremely low fertility and high life expectancy. Residential mobility between neighbourhoods is not leading to important population movements. Overall, the population of Genoa decreases due to higher out-migration than in-migration. At the same time migration movements reduce the aging process: Genoa loses more seniors, who leave for the rest of Italy, and it 'gains' young immigrants. Population decline and demographic ageing are widespread and they characterize all 25 districts of Genoa. An interactive computer program developed by IRP based on the demographic observatory and on the logic of a multi-regional model provides population projections. This program integrates the management of the database, the formulation of the basic assumptions, demographic projections and the creation of tables of the results. The results of the observatory and population projections are presented.