A Stakeholder Oriented Modelling Framework for the Early Detection of Shortage in Water Supply Systems

Management of water supply systems under shortage conditions due to drought requires computational tools able to relate the past precipitation regime over different time scales to future water resources availability. This work proposes a modelling framework to address the occurrence of shortage for water supply systems whose resource is constituted by natural or artificial reservoirs. The proposed methodology aims at identifying "management triggers" for possible mitigation measures. Emphasis is given on the use of standardized indices to promote information sharing. The implemented tool is structured into five modules: "hydrological" module; "scenarios" module; "reservoir" module; a module for the evaluation of "indices of shortage"; and a "support to early-warning" module. The whole procedure has been applied to three Italian reservoirs. For each water body, a case specific shortage early-warning system, based on standardized precipitation indices has been identified, allowing the implementation of efficient local mitigation measures.