Effects of the mitigation measures discussed at international level on the space debris long-term evolution in low Earth orbit

The effects, on the low earth orbit environment, of different mitigation measures discussed at international level are illustrated with simulations spanning more than 200 years in the future. The analysis took into account a detailed traffic model, explosions, collisions and the effects of air drag. The simulations carried out confirm the importance of spacecraft and rocket bodies passivation to avoid in-orbit explosions, but the de-orbiting of upper stages is needed as well to curb the debris and collision rate increase and to avert the onset of an exponential growth of artificial objects in the near earth space. The additional removal of end-of-life spacecraft does not improve the outcome dramatically, but seems to be the only additional measure able to reduce the collision rates in low earth orbit, reversing the historical trend of the last four decades.