Quantification of Non-linearities in the Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of the Use Phase of Battery Electric Vehicles

The diffusion of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) is projected to influence the electricity grid operation, potentially offering opportunities for load-shifting policies aimed at higher integration of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system. Moreover, the examined literature emphasizes electricity as a relevant driver of BEVs Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results. To evaluate LCA impacts associated to future BEVs diffusion scenarios in Italy, we adopt the Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (CLCA) methodology. LCA conventionally assumes a proportional relation between environmental impact indicators and the functional unit. However, such relation may not be representative if the electricity system is significantly affected by the large-scale diffusion of BEVs. Our study couples the conventional CLCA methodology with the EnergyPLAN model through three different approaches, which progressively include BEV-specific dynamics, to capture correlations between additional BEVs fleets and the electricity grid operation, that affect the mix of electricity consumed in the use phase by BEVs, in Italy in 2030. Here we show that if renewables capacity is not additionally installed in response to additional BEVs electricity demand, the marginal Climate change total indicator of BEVs may increase up to ~40%, with respect to a business-as-usual scenario.Moreover, we quantitatively support the literature indications on how to properly estimate BEVs LCA impacts. Indeed, we weight electricity LCA impacts on hourly BEV charge profiles, finding that this approach best captures BEVs interdependence with the electricity system. At low BEVs diffusion, this approach clearly shows the potential BEVs capability to increase exploitation of renewable energy, whereas at high BEVs diffusion, it fully highlights potential responses of fossil fuel power plants to additional electricity demand. Due to these dynamics, we find that linearly scaling the business-as-usual scenario results would lead to an underestimation of 12.45 Mton CO2-eq of the total impacts of an additional BEVs fleet, under a 100% BEV diffusion scenario. Our methodology could be replicated with different energy system models, or at various geographical scales. Our framework could be coupled with comprehensive assessments of transport systems, to further provide robustness to policymakers by including non-linearities in the mix of electricity consumed during the use phase of BEVs.