One-hour post-load plasma glucose predicts progression to prediabetes in a multi-ethnic cohort of obese youths

AIMS: One-hour post-load hyperglycaemia has been proposed as an independent predictor of type 2 diabetes in adults. We examined whether 1-hour plasma glucose (1hPG) during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) can predict changes in the glucose tolerance status of a multi-ethnic cohort of youths with normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Materials and methods: A total of 202 obese youths with NGT (33.7% Caucasian, 31.1% Hispanic, 32.2% African American) underwent a 3-hour OGTT at baseline and after a 2-year follow-up period. Whole-body insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion, ?-cell function and insulin clearance were estimated by modeling plasma glucose, insulin and C-peptide levels. Results: Obese youths with 1hPG >=7.4 mmol/L (or 133 mg/dL; n = 83) exhibited higher body mass index (BMI), plasma triglycerides and fasting and post-load glucose concentrations than individuals with 1hPG <7.4 mmol/L. Also, 1hPG >=7.4 mmol/L was associated with a lower disposition index (DI) (P < 0.0001) and with alterations in whole-body insulin sensitivity, ?-cell function and insulin clearance. Adolescents with 1hPG >=7.4 mmol/L were approximately three times more likely to develop prediabetes (ie, impaired glucose tolerance and/or impaired fasting glucose) over time (OR, 2.92 [1.22-6.98]; P = 0.02), independent of age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, insulin sensitivity, DI and plasma glucose concentrations. No differences emerged in the risk of prediabetes related to 1-hour hyperglycaemia among different ethnic groups. Conclusions: A plasma glucose concentration >= 7.4 mmol/L at 1 hour during an OGTT is associated with a worse clinical and metabolic phenotype and may be an independent predictor of progression to prediabetes in obese youths with NGT.