Tracking the drift of a human body in a coastal ocean using numerical prediction models of the oceanic, atmospheric and wave conditions

This paper describes the use of numerical models to infer the path of a floating human body in the Ligurian Sea (north-west Mediterranean) during the month of January 2001. The prevailing oceanic currents were obtained from a state-of-the-art real-time nowcast/forecast ocean circulation model, while the sea state was inferred from a numerical model of the surface gravity waves, both driven by regional atmospheric models. The surface currents (from the ocean model) and the drift ones at the ocean surface, as inferred from the wave model, were used to drive a Lagrangian model of the drifting body to deduce its plausible trajectory along the Ligurian coast. The inferred path is reasonably consistent with location and time of the discovery on the French coast. This note illustrates the utility of numerical prediction models at the disposal of modern forensic science in the fields of ocean sciences.