Mediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores

This paper describes the first evaluation of the quality of the forecast and analyses produced at the basin scale by the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System (MFS) (< a href='http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs'target='_blank'> http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs ). The system produces short-term ocean forecasts for the following ten days. Analyses are produced weekly using a daily assimilation cycle. The analyses are compared with independent data from buoys, where available, and with the assimilated data before the data are inserted. In this work we have considered 53 ten days forecasts produced from 16 August 2005 to 15 August 2006.