Surface high-resolution temperature forecast in southern Italy

Abstract. Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at 2.5 km horizontal resolution at CRATI/ISAC-CNR. Forecasts are available online at http://meteo.crati.it/ previsioni.html (every 6-h). This paper shows the forecast performance out to three days for one climatological year (from 1 December 2008 to 30 November 2009, 365 run) for minimum, mean and maximum temperature. The forecast is evaluated against gridded analyses at the same horizontal resolution. Gridded analysis is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) and uses a de-trending technique for computing the background field. Observations from 87 thermometers are used in the analysis system. In this paper cumulative statistics are shown to quantify forecast errors out to three days.