Environmental optimization model for the European batteries industry based on prospective life cycle assessment and material flow analysis

he market of batteries for electric mobility is expected to greatly expand in Europe during the next decades. The most sustainable batteries to be produced in the future depend on the primary and secondary resources available and on the capacity to produce and recycle battery cells. This paper proposes an optimization model based on Material Flow Analysis and prospective Life Cycle Assessment which allows us to suggest the types of batteries which should be produced and recycled, the primary and secondary resources to be used, and in which quantities. Several scenarios are proposed to address the uncertainty of the future batteries market. In the Reference Scenario, designed to reflect the European policies, the results show that Europe would achieve high self-sufficiency from external producers (72%), but this percentage could decrease drastically in the case of alternative scenarios (up to 35%). Furthermore, in the Reference Scenario, lithium-iron-phosphates (40%) and lithium-air (23%) batteries result to be the best options. To cut the consumption of lithium and cobalt, sodium-ion cells (3%) could also be considered for manufacturing or even nickel-cobalt-manganese (6%) type to exploit secondary cobalt. In alternative scenarios instead, the proposed algorithm would suggest different choices as a function of the boundary conditions. For instance, in case the demand and the re-use rate of the cells are higher than in the Reference Scenario, the environmental impact of batteries for mobility turns out to increase because of the lower self-sufficiency of the European industry.