Correlation between meteorological data and fire occurrence in a Mediterranean area (Tuscany Region)

Starting from the available meteorological data (T° and rainfall), this work elaborates an analysis to correlate meteorological conditions with the fire occurrences in Mediterranean regions, during the more dangerous period, between June and September (75% of events) with a peak in August. In a first step the work studies the correspondence between the meteorological data trend and the fire ignitions (analysis performed from 1984 to 2002). Successively, the meteorological data are used to define a Drought and Thermal Fire Hazard Index (DFHI and TFHI). These indices are matched with the fires events in order to test and verify their capability to define, in a forest ecosystem, the favorable condition to fire ignition. In the second phase the severity of the fire occurred (depending on the atmospheric and fuel humidity) are analyzed adjusting the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) to apply this index in the Mediterranean conditions. Finally a focus are performed for the 1985 and 2003 (particular warm and drought years) and 2002 (temperate and humid year), as ones with particular meteorological conditions.