LLUNPIY Preliminary extension for simulating primary lahars: Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano

Cotopaxi volcano is one of the most studied and surveyed volcanos in the world because the repetition of the 1877 catastrophic lahar invasion, is not implausible, threatening now more than 100,000 persons. A reliable forecasting tool is very important for projecting security measures. LLUNPIY is a Cellular Automata model for simulating lahars in terms of complex system evolving on the base of local interaction. Here, LLUNPIY extension is applied to Cotopaxi event of 1877 primary lahars, after the successful simulation of some secondary lahars of Tungurahua volcano. Such an extension permitted simulations with different initial hypotheses: our preliminary simulations agree in outline with field studies about the evolution of event, moreover LLUNPIY permits a broader approach to overall phenomenon in comparison with other tools.