Validation of a hierarchical emission model: statistical analysis of Diesel and gasoline Euro 3 automobile emissions from the ARTEMIS data base.

A statistical hierarchical emission model was developed to analyse and determine average vehicle emission factors. It was based on the emission data base collected within the EU Fifth Framework Project "Assessment and reliability of transport emission models and inventory systems" (ARTEMIS). This paper illustrates the preliminary results of statistical analysis and model validation of emissions for a representative group of diesel and gasoline EURO 3 passenger cars. The model was validated on independent data sets using several statistical criteria. The emissions predicted by the emission model for the independent data sample were statistically compared with observed emissions and with values calculated by a polynomial. Our results indicate that the proposed approach is effective in the exploratory analysis of emission data and is a potential tool in predicting emissions of new trips.