A multi-group epidemic model to represent the COVID-19 spread among regions: Analysis of the Italian case

We formulate and implement a dynamical multi-group model to describe the diffusion of COVID-19 epidemic within homogeneous sub-populations, structurally or geographically separated but interconnected by a mobility network. Each sub-model provides a rather accurate description of infective sub-populations. Control actions, representing the intervention measures adopted to curb the disease dynamics, are also included. The multi-group structure of the model is specifically designed to investigate the effects of people mobility. The case of three Italian areas is considered, for the period March-October 2020 including the massive increment in people mobility occurred in summertime. The results of model simulation are in good agreement with the data and can provide important informations about the contribution of outcome individuals to the virus spread.