Comparison of two simple real-time flood forecast models: the case study of the Po River (Italy)

The performance of two simple models for real-time flood forecasting is investigated and compared. The first approach, named as RCM-RT, is based on the Rating Curve Model (RCM) and provides, involving only two parameters, future estimates of both discharge and water level at a river site where only the stage is monitored while the flow is known at an upstream section. The second model, named MHBA, is described by a linear stochastic formulation of flood wave propagation and is based only on stage data. Both models require that the forecast lead-time and the parameters are identified a-priori through a calibration phase involving different observed flood events. The two models are tested on a long reach of the Po River (northern Italy) for several flood events. The obtained results show that both models provide on average accurate forecast water levels 32 hours in advance