Decadal climate predictions with the ECMWF coupled system

In this study results of decadal ensemble hindcasts over the period 1965-2005 will be presented. The experiments were performed at ECMWF using the IFS/NEMO coupled model initialised with analysis data. The ocean conditions have been produced with NEMOVAR, a multivariate 3D-var data assimilation method The atmosphere and land surface initialization was from the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis. The skill of the model in reproducing the observed coupled teleconnection patterns and the leading modes of interannual variability in the atmosphere is evaluated. An assessment of the extent to which atmospheric variables are skilfully predicted in the forecast range from one to ten years will be presented as well.