A multi-failure additive dependability model for transit system effectiveness analysis

Dependability has been recognized in the transportation reliability literature as an effective measure of transit system service quality. Dependability models link system dependability with reliability and maintainability characteristics of subsystems, incorporating special operating characteristics and recovery policy from failure of each particular transit system. In this paper a new transit system dependability model is proposed, which considers the possibility that a passenger may be delayed by the occurrence of more than one failure in a trip. The mathematical difficulties associated with the algebra of random variables are overcome by using the Monte Carlo method. The results of the proposed model are compared with those relative to different modelling approaches in the literature, by applying the model to a common test scenario.