Cartography of the b-plane of a close encounter I: semimajor axes of post-encounter orbits

Close planetary encounters play an important role in the evolution of the orbits of small Solar system bodies and are usually studied with the help of numerical integrations. Here we study close encounters in the framework of an analytic theory, focusing on the so-called b-plane, which is the plane centred on the planet and perpendicular to the planetocentric velocity at infinity of the small body. As shown in previous papers, it is possible to identify the initial conditions on the b-plane that lead to post-encounter orbits of given semimajor axis. In this paper we exploit analytical relationships between b-plane coordinates and pre-encounter orbital elements and compute the probability of transition to these post-encounter states, and numerically check the validity of the analytic approach.