A generalization of the Incidence Function Model for metapopulations with fluctuating behaviour: an application to Lymantria dispar (L.) in Sardinia.

Most of the analysis and modeling approaches on gypsy moth population dynamics have been applied to a continuous spatial dimension, and therefore they do not account for the possible role of highly fragmented forest stands on pest dynamics. Spatially explicit metapopulation models show some advantages in representing the spatio-temporal metapopulation dynamics in fragmented habitats. In this work, the most popular of these models has been extended to take into account periodicity in the pest dynamics. Data on the gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera Lymantriidae), one of the main oak forest defoliators in the Holarctic Region, referring to the period 1980-2010 in Sardinia (Italy) are analyzed.