Sustainability of dairy farming system in Tuscany in a changing climate

It is widely accepted that our climate is changing due to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of the 'greenhouse gases', and these changes may exercise strong impacts on different economic sectors. In particular for agricultural systems, such a change may have significant impacts on crop yield, cattle breeding and related management practices. Accordingly, the economic viability of agricultural production systems in future scenarios is a main concern especially for policy-making purposes. Up until now, the impact of climate change on agriculture has focused on change in crop yield, whereas a 'holistic' approach, considering both benefits (in terms of direct economic income) and detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural practices (soil loss, nitrogen leaching, water balance) has not been considered. On these premises, the objective of the present article was to assess agricultural sustainability on a farm level in Tuscany (central Italy) under the climate change regime, considering both conventional and organic farming systems (CFS and OFS, respectively). In particular, an ecological-economic optimisation model was run for both the present and future scenarios to perform an integrated assessment of sustainability of CFS and OFS on the case-study farm.