The 3D numerical simulation of near-source ground motion during the Marsica earthquake, central Italy, 100 years later

In this paper we show 3D physics-based numerical simulations of ground motion during one of the most devastating earthquakes in the recent Italian history, occurred on Jan 13, 1915, Marsica, Central Italy. The results provide a realistic estimate of the earthquake ground motion and fit reasonably well both the geodetic measurements of permanent ground settlement, and the observed macroseismic distribution of damage. In addition, these results provide a very useful benchmark to improve the current knowledge of near-source earthquake ground motion, including evaluation of the best distance metrics to describe the spatial variability of the peak values of ground motion, the relative importance of fault normal vs fault parallel components, the conditions under which vertical ground motion may prevail, as well as the adequacy of 1D vs 3D modelling of site amplification effects.