Wind and wave predictions in the Adriatic Sea

We analyse the quality of the predictions of wind and waves in the Adriatic Sea considering the corresponding analysis and forecast fields of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts up to 72 h. The whole study is based on a 1-year long period 1st Jan–31st Dec 2006 and two hindcast studies of bora events. Global wind fields are used for the analysis. The marine surface wind speeds are corrected for their underestimate with a procedure based on a long term comparison with measured data. The corrected wind fields are then used to run the WAM wave model and to produce the corresponding analysis and forecast wave fields. These are analysed both among themselves and vs buoy data obtained along the Italian coasts. In particular the detailed analysis of a case of bora highlights the sensitivity of the local wind and wave conditions to small changes in the overall meteorological patterns. This strongly suggests that in an enclosed sea the capability of producing successful forecasts beyond a limited time extent is greatly reduced with respect to the oceans.