Skip to Main Content (Press Enter)

Logo CNR
  • ×
  • Home
  • People
  • Outputs
  • Organizations
  • Expertise & Skills

UNI-FIND
Logo CNR

|

UNI-FIND

cnr.it
  • ×
  • Home
  • People
  • Outputs
  • Organizations
  • Expertise & Skills
  1. Outputs

A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading

Academic Article
Publication Date:
2020
abstract:
In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristic timescale, but conversely by a distribution of time scales, rendered via a time-dependent growth rate. In detail, a differential equation containing a power-law time dependent growth rate is proposed, whose solution, named Stretched Logistic Function, provides a modified version of the usual logistic function. The model equation is inspired by and applied to the recent spreading on COVID-19 disease in Italy, showing how the real dynamics of infection spreading is characterized by a time dependent dynamics. A speculative discussion of the Stretched Logistic Function in relation to diffusion processes is attempted.
Iris type:
01.01 Articolo in rivista
Keywords:
Pandemic spreading; Logistic regression; Complex dynamics; COVID-19
List of contributors:
Materassi, Massimo
Authors of the University:
MATERASSI MASSIMO
Handle:
https://iris.cnr.it/handle/20.500.14243/381539
Published in:
CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS
Journal
  • Overview

Overview

URL

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920305105?via%3Dihub
  • Use of cookies

Powered by VIVO | Designed by Cineca | 26.5.0.0 | Sorgente dati: PREPROD (Ribaltamento disabilitato)