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A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading

Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2020
Abstract:
In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristic timescale, but conversely by a distribution of time scales, rendered via a time-dependent growth rate. In detail, a differential equation containing a power-law time dependent growth rate is proposed, whose solution, named Stretched Logistic Function, provides a modified version of the usual logistic function. The model equation is inspired by and applied to the recent spreading on COVID-19 disease in Italy, showing how the real dynamics of infection spreading is characterized by a time dependent dynamics. A speculative discussion of the Stretched Logistic Function in relation to diffusion processes is attempted.
Tipologia CRIS:
01.01 Articolo in rivista
Keywords:
Pandemic spreading; Logistic regression; Complex dynamics; COVID-19
Elenco autori:
Materassi, Massimo
Autori di Ateneo:
MATERASSI MASSIMO
Link alla scheda completa:
https://iris.cnr.it/handle/20.500.14243/381539
Pubblicato in:
CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS
Journal
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URL

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920305105?via%3Dihub
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