Nocturnal distance sampling of a Mediterranean population of fallow deer is consistent with population projections

Context Precise and accurate methods are essential to assess wildlife populations for sound management. We surveyed a managed population of fallow deer (Dama dama) in a Mediterranean environment in Italy, where this non-native ungulate has a negative impact on biodiversity. Aims We compare nocturnal distance-sampling (deer are detected by thermal imagery at night) population estimates with demographic projections of the same population. Methods We estimated natural survival in fawns (0.86), yearlings (0.83), adult males (0.70) and adult females (0.90) using capture-mark-recapture. By integrating survival estimates with population structure, reproductive traits and harvest data, we performed demographic projections. We performed nocturnal distance sampling on foot by using a thermal imagery once a year (in autumn) from 2001 to 2005. We walked 75-77km (71 transects) per each survey. Key results We showed that our survey design met distance-sampling assumptions. Distance sampling and demographic projections yielded similar and precise (12.6%