Comprehensive modelling for approaching the Kyoto targets on local scale.

The case study presented in this paper was aimed to evaluate the strategic actions to be taken in the local communities of Val d’Agri (Basilicata region, Italy) in order to contribute to the national objectives derived by the Kyoto Protocol. A comprehensive model (MARKAL-VdA) was implemented to investigate on the main sectors responsible of air pollution in the area, providing a full picture of the main energy and material flows and their feedback throughout the system. A scenario by scenario analysis was performed to analyse the reactions of the modelled system to the introduction of an exogenous constraint on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A comparison of the optimal solutions for the main scenarios is provided, analysing the effects of the environmental constraint on the total system cost and the side-effects on the emission level of other pollutants. The main changes in the technological configuration are discussed with reference to fuel mix, technology choice, real market prices and reduced costs of competing options. The resulting solutions were compared to those obtained performing a multiobjective optimisation with combined constraints on CO2 and TSP (Total Suspended Particulates). In this case there were evaluated the overall external costs of achieving the desired environmental quality for emissions of both the pollutants.