Spatial patterns of wildfire risk in Sardinia

Wildfires are a growing threat to human and ecological values worldwide, particularly in the fire-prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin. The ecosystems of this region have experienced an increasing occurrence of severe and extreme fire seasons, with severe damages to areas of high interest and loss of life. Like other Mediterranean areas, Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational values and highly valued agricultural areas that are threatened by increasing frequency of wildfires. We used historical fire data and wildfire simulations with the MTT algorithm to estimate burn probability (BP), flame length, and fire size in Sardinia, and compared wildfire risk among and within highly valued features. Variation in flame length, fire size and BP among and within the different land designations illustrated the effects of fuels, ignition location, topography and weather on wildfire occurrence and spread patterns. The approach offers a compact model of wildfire risk and incorporates landscape effects of large wildfire spread. The results revealed spatial variation in fire risk that is useful in prioritizing fuel treatments and guiding other wildfire risk management activities. The modeling approach can also be used to test the effects of different investment strategies to reduce wildfire risk to specific landscape features.