Seasonal prediction of the evolution of ice and snow resources

Based on long-term climate predictions, cryosphere resources in the Alps are projected to decline, until almost complete extinction of many glaciated areas within a few decades. However, for the management and planning of water resources, it is crucial to rely on accurate predictions of the evolution of ice and snow resources on the seasonal scale. This is one of the objectives of the MEDSCOPE project in the framework of the ERA4CS initiative, where a case study is being developed in which the seasonal climate forecasts produced by the project for the Mediterranean region is downscaled for selected glaciated areas in the Italian Alps. The downscaled climate variables will be used to force two distinct numerical models, namely a physically-based multi-layer snowpack model and an empirical glacier model calibrated with historical data. Model outputs will be evaluated and compared with observational data for glacier mass balance and length change, and with snow depth and snow water equivalent measurements by automatic stations in the study areas. The first results of this work will be presented at the Conference.