Vascular risk factors, incidence of MCI, and rates of progression to dementia.

Objective: To estimate prevalence, incidence, and rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia and correlated vascular risk factors with incident MCI and its progression to dementia. Methods: The authors evaluated 2,963 individuals from the population-based sample of 5,632 subjects 65 to 84 years old, at the first ( 1992 to 1993) and second survey (1995 to 1996) of the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (ILSA), with a 3.5-year follow-up. Dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), other types of dementia, and MCI were classified using current clinical criteria. Results: Among the 2,963 participants, 139 MCI patients were diagnosed at the first ILSA survey. During the 3.5-year follow-up, 113 new events of MCI were diagnosed with an estimated incidence rate of 21.5 per 1,000 person-years. We found a progression rate to dementia ( all causes) of 3.8/100 person-years. Specific progression rates for AD, VaD, and other types of dementia were 2.3, 1.3, and 0.3/100 person-years. Furthermore, age was a risk factor for incident MCI (RR: 5.93, 95% CI: 3.17 to 11.10), while education was protective (RR: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.10), and serum total cholesterol evidenced a borderline nonsignificant trend for a protective effect. There was a nonsignificant trend for stroke as a risk factor of progression of MCI to dementia. Conclusions: In this population, among those who progressed to dementia, 60% progressed to AD and 33% to VaD. Vascular risk factors influence incident mild cognitive impairment and the rate of progression to dementia.