Use of the SCIDDICA-SS3 model for predictive mapping of debris flow hazard: an example of application in the Peloritani Mountains area

Cellular Automata (CA) represent a computational paradigm for complex fluid-dynamical phenomena that evolve on the basis on local interactions. Macroscopic CA (MCA) characterize a methodological approach for modelling and simulating large scale (extended for kilometers) surface flows. Fast-moving flow-like "landslides", as lahars, debris and mud flows, represent very destructive natural disasters as number of casualties in the world. Simulation of such phenomena could be an important tool for hazard management in threatened regions. This paper presents shortly the modelling methodology of MCA for such type of surface flow together with the models SCIDDICA-SS2, SCIDDICA-SS3 (both for debris, mud and granular flows) and LLUNPIY (for primary and secondary lahars) together with their significant applications in simulating both past and probable future events. At the end, a new result about possible hazard of Cotopaxi volcano is reported; the repetition of the 1877 catastrophic lahar invasion is simulated, beginning from the immediate melting of part of the Cotopaxi icecap because of volcanic activity.