Quantile regression analysis as a predictive tool for lake macroinvertebrate biodiversity

The Water Framework Directive introduced in Europe major changes to improve the management of water resources. This study aims to highlight some of the potential implications of its implementation for lake water monitoring in Italy. A Life+ project was launched to plan the first monitoring of lake macroinvertebrates standardized at the national level. Quantile regression analysis was used to explain different metrics of diversity describing macroinvertebrate communities in response to twenty-one variables representing chemical, physical and morphological characteristics of the environment. Nine lakes located in two Italian regions (Piedmont and Sardinia) were analyzed covering a wide trophic spectrum, from oligotrophy to hyper-eutrophy. The lakes were sampled following the national standardized protocol with samples covering the three recognized lake zones: littoral, sublittoral, profundal.