Attributing Accelerated Summertime Warming in the Southeast United States to Recent Reductions in Aerosol Burden: Indications from Vertically-Resolved Observations

During the twentieth century, the southeast United States cooled, in direct contrast with widespread global and hemispheric warming. While the existing literature is divided on the cause of this so-called "warming hole," anthropogenic aerosols have been hypothesized as playing a primary role in its occurrence. In this study, unique satellite-based observations of aerosol vertical profiles are combined with a one-dimensional radiative transfer model and surface temperature observations to diagnose how major reductions in summertime aerosol burden since 2001 have impacted surface temperatures in the southeast US. We show that a significant improvement in air quality likely contributed to the elimination of the warming hole and acceleration of the positive temperature trend observed in recent years. These reductions coincide with a new EPA rule that was implemented between 2006 and 2010 that revised the fine particulate matter standard downward. Similar to the southeast US in the twentieth century, other regions of the globe may experience masking of long-term warming due to greenhouse gases, especially those with particularly poor air quality.