The cry wolf issue in seismic early warning applications: A feasibility study for the Campanian region (Southern Italy)

Seismic risk management consists of mitigation strategies, planning and emergency preparedness. Early warning systems (EWS), based on real-time analysis of ground motion proxy measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability of built environment and lifelines. EWS applications may not be cost free and their effectiveness is related to missed and false alarm probabilities (PMA and PFA respectively). The Campanian region in southern Italy is developing a seismic early warning systems for the active area where the Irpinia 1980 earthquake was generated. The work herein discussed represents a feasibility study on the cry wolf issue in seismic early warning applications. The false and missed alarm events are formulated in terms of structural response parameters and ground motion intensity measures. PMA and PFA are computed simulating the EWS prediction of ground motion by use of simulated ground motion; the site where the structure is supposed to be located is assumed to be at 100 km from the EW network. The I and II type risk are evaluated for the decisional rule adopted and operating characteristic curves are developed