Factors controlling seismic susceptibility of the Sele valley slopes: the case of 1980 Irpinia earthquake re-examined

Most of the documented slope failures triggered by the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (Ms 6.9) occurred in the upper Sele valley epicentral area (southern Italy). The early investigations revealed some puzzling characteristics of the slope failure distribution, i.e. (i) the higher landslide concentration on the valley slopes located farther away from the earthquake fault; (ii) the predominance of re-activations over first-time movements. The analyses of factors controlling the landslide concentrations indicates that the differences in hydrological setting and in slope were the two main causal factors whereas the seismic shaking, according to the radiation pattern modelling, could have been characterised by a relatively low rate of decrease across the valley. The aspect of the slopes did not play a significant role. The differences in groundwater conditions between the western and eastern valley sides were likely enhanced by the earthquake. In addition to the probable pore-water pressure rise, the seismic shaking caused large increases in flow of springs draining the western aquifer, and this made the adjacent flysch slopes more prone to landsliding. Data from available literature suggest that the effects of earthquake-induced groundwater release on seismic landslide distribution is especially important for normal-fault events. The Sele valley case also indicates that the slope of the pre-existing landslides is an important factor controlling their susceptibility to seismic re-activations.