Climate change scenarios and simulations on adaptation of Mediterranean agriculture: preliminary results of productive and economic impact

This paper represents the processes of choice of farmers considering that they plan their activities based on an awareness of the inherent variability in the climatic conditions. Farmers' expectations on climatic variables, and the consequent conditions for crop and livestock, are represented with probability distributions estimated on the climate conditions in the years prior to the time of planning considered in the study. The choices due to those expectations are simulated with a supply territorial farm-type model of Discrete Stochastic Programming (DSP). The different impacts in irrigated and rain-fed areas call for different adaptation strategies.