Modelling and management of a Mediterranean karstic coastal aquifer under the effects of seawater intrusion and climate change

The study and management of the groundwater resources of a large, deep, coastal, karstic aquifer represent a very complex hydrogeological problem. Here, this problem is successfully approached by using an equivalent porous continuous medium (EPCM) to represent a karstic Apulian aquifer (southern Italy). This aquifer, which is located on a peninsula and extends to hundreds of metres depth, is the sole local source of high-quality water resources. These resources are at risk due to overexploitation, climate change and seawater intrusion. The model was based on MODFLOW and SEAWAT codes. Piezometric and salinity variations from 1930 to 2060 were simulated under three past scenarios (up to 1999) and three future scenarios that consider climate change, different types of discharge, and changes in sea level and salinity. The model was validated using surveyed piezometric and salinity data. An evident piezometric drop was confirmed for the past period (until 1999); a similar dramatic drop appears to be likely in the future. The lateral intrusion and upconing effects of seawater intrusion were non-negligible in the past and will be considerable in the future. All phenomena considered here, including sea level and sea salinity, showed non-negligible effects on coastal groundwater.