The Model Web: Enhancing model interoperability for ecological forecasting and other disciplines

Ecological forecasting-making predictions about the ecological consequences of various types of change-is constrained by a variety of factors, including computer model interoperability. This, in turn, is limited by technical barriers, such as semantic and format consistency, and non-technical ones, such as model isolation that results when sponsors use a "stovepiped" funding approach rather than an integrated one. Because these constraints limit the types of ecological questions that can be addressed, they need to be overcome if decision makers are to obtain the information they require to make informed decisions. The problem of limited model interoperability exists, to varying degrees, in all disciplines that rely on computer models, including hydrology, air quality, and the ocean sciences, among others. One solution is being called the Model Web, a concept for an open-ended system of interoperable computer models and databases communicating via Service Oriented Architectures. The Model Web would consist of a distributed, multidisciplinary network of independent, interoperating models (plus related datasets and sensors). Like the World Wide Web it would grow organically, without central control, within a framework of broad goals and data exchange standards or guidelines. These are under discussion but they should emerge naturally from the modeling community; no single