Risk analysis of tailing dams collapse

The paper discusses the simulation procedure used to evaluate the risk of tailings dam collapse. The traditional limit equilibrium analysis is applied to show the statistical variability of the Safety Factor; the stress - strain calculation is applied to show the collapse mechanisms. The collapse simulation develops through two phases: the instability of the embankment external slope and the collapse of the whole dam produced by the tailings horizontal pressure. In the case presented on this paper, the simulation results shown that even in the case of an high average value and small standard deviation of the internal friction angle of the embankment material, the dam collapse is possible with the probability of 2%.