A methodology for assessing the spatial distribution of static wildfire risk over wide areas: the case studies of Liguria and Sardinia (Italy)

In Mediterranean areas, some studies suggest universal increases in fire frequency due to climatic warming. However, some authors point out that the universality of these results is questionable. In this study, we try to go beyond the simple analysis of statistical data related with the number of fires and the total burned area, which can be misleading in the context of climate change. The fire perimeters have been used to inquire spatialized climate indexes and the vegetation cover. A statistical analysis of climate indexes has been conducted and a certain number of Type of Homogeneous Areas (THA) defined by introducing information on vegetation cover. The comparison of THA and climatic indexes allowed the definition of an index of risk. Maps of this index highlight risky areas in Liguria and Sardinia (Italy).