A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: is it possible to apply a robustness framework?
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2015
Abstract:
Attribution studies investigate the causes of recent global warming. For a few decades the scientific community generally adopted dynamical models - the so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) - for such an investigation. These models show the essential role of anthropogenic forcings in driving the temperature behaviour of the last half century. In the last period even other (data-driven) methodological approaches were adopted for attribution studies. This allows the scientific community to compare the results coming from these different approaches and to possibly increase their robustness. For such a purpose, the paper explores the possibility of applying a robustness framework, so far used only in the case of multi-model GCM ensembles, to a strategy including models from different methodological orientations, assessing such an application especially in the light of the independence issue.
Tipologia CRIS:
01.01 Articolo in rivista
Keywords:
climate change; climate modelling; attribution; scientific uncertainty; robustness analysis; dynamical modelling; multi-model ensembles; data-driven modelling; neural networks; Granger causality; complex systems.
Elenco autori:
Pasini, Antonello; Mazzocchi, Fulvio
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